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WHILE YOU'RE DISTRACTED. . .
by
Mark Scheinbaum columnist
LAKE
WORTH, FLA (12 JAN 04)--While your head is turned by media nonsense,
several political, social, and economic stories are ready to explode
into the headlines. Remember where you heard it first.
Only in the United States would a relatively
intelligent person think that urgent news involves Michael Jackson, Howard Dean's
chances in Iowa, or Mad Cowburgers. Here are my news stories for you--no
extra charge:
HAITI: BLOOD IN THE STREETS--While Pres.
Jean Bertrand Aristide headed for the Summit of the Americas in Mexico, the simmering
violence in the hemisphere's poorest nation was boiling over. The police chief
of the historic second city, Cap-Haitien was assassinated; a small parade downtown
from the Port-au-Prince suburb of Petion-ville turned into a spontaneous anti-Arisitide
march. Agence France-Presse said 30,000 marches took to the streets. Reuters
said more than 10,000. Aerial photos looked more like 100,000. The once-popular
Aristide, propped-up by a U.S. invasion has achieved exactly what all the other
Haitian presidents have achieved in 200 years: failure. Poverty, arms,
drugs, violence, and economic chaos are at the flashpoint.
THE EDWARDS FACTOR: Sorry, I told
you so last summer. The only Democratic candidate with a substantive style difference,
who also passes the political smell test is Sen. John Edwards of
North Carolina. He's a working class guy from a union family; crafted a wealthy
law practice beating up on big guys; has a family which seems almost human, and
is refreshingly articulate and candid. The phones started ringing this week when
the Des Moines Register endorsed him for the Democratic nomination. "How did
you know?" I was asked. The answer is I kept my eyes and ears open, and easily
found reasons to eliminate all of the other candidates from my focus.
THE OIL CRISIS: U.S. taxpayers are
paying to send oil to Iraq. Shall we try this again? O.K., the ruptured petrochemical
infrastructure plus sabotage in Iraq means that Iraqis are using gasoline U.S.
troops bring into the oil rich country. Royal Dutch Shell for the second year
in a row has failed to pump as much oil from planet earth as they sell--dipping
into their reserves. Shell now predicts that they (and others?) may only be able
to find 70-90 per cent of the oil resources needed each year. In elementary
school we were taught the Middle East had plenty of oil for another 100 years.
That was 50 years ago (I 'm feeling old about now, gang). All the economic
and political trends--even with a cold winter--should have stabilized oil prices
in the $20-30 per barrel range. We're lucky to hold at $36. Don't be shocked
if you see $1.99 per gallon before you ever see $1.35 again (Georgia, excluded).
TWO-TIERED MARKET: Nasdaq is rushing
to capitalize on the scandals on the trading floor and in the board room of the
New York Stock Exchange. What a laugh. The guys who invented backing away from
trades; failing to answer their phones during a crash; forcing small automated
traders out of business; making market spreads with no semblance of reality,
are now going to call the kettle black. Before the end of the year the dot-com
remnants, biogenetic pharmaceuticals, and debt-ridden telecom companies will
once again be trading in the toilet. Driven by favored tax-treatment for dividends,
investment grade large caps and mid-caps will soar. Once blue chip European and
Japanese companies will find that a super strong Yen, Euro, Swiss Franc, and
Pound Sterling will lead to recession in their backyards.
LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS: Listening to
NPR I learned that some journalist lived aboard a container ship for a few months
and found out that security is about zero. Well, not quite. Filipino sailors
with no criminal records can't come ashore for the one day shore liberty they
used to get every month or two. With $80 billion spent on airport and airline
security and climbing, the U.S. and its "coalition" members are spending a pittance
on maritime security. Cruise ships are now the size of Cleveland, and containers
hold half-dead (or all dead) refugees trying to reach U.S. soil. Al-Qaeda, the
Taliban, the Russian mafia, the Cali Cartel, and 93 gangsta rappers from Stockton
could all be partying in a container in the port of New Orleans and no one would
know. Well, maybe the National Enquirer would know. The only remaining question
is whether or not the maritime crackdown will occur before or after the next
terrorist attack.
THE BITTER TRUTH: In recent weeks
I have attended an investment conference in Miami Beach; a surfers' convention
in Orlando; a cocktail party in a lovely country club townhouse; a fundraiser
in Donald Trump's house; a Kiwanis meeting in Panamá; day of racing
at the flats at Gulfstream Park; sold charity hot dogs in front of Wal-mart;
and chowed down at the Desert Inn honky tonk in Yee Haw Junction. In none of
these places did anyone discuss Michael Jackson, Laci Petersen, the Mars Mission,
Britney Spears, Princess Di, Kobe Bryant, or Dr. Phil. I must be hanging
out with pure trailer trash, because to watch U.S. television all of the above
are on the tips of the tongues of all educated, informed Americans. Lord
help me....
----
Former UPI newsman Mark Scheinbaum is paid to manage risk, not create it, at
Kaplan & Co., www.kaplansecurities.com and can be heard on the radio nationwide,
twice each morning on Doug Stephan's "Good Day"
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